The Coming China Bubble

You think capitalism causes bubbles? Try five-year-plans. Foreign Policy magazine has an article predicting a bursting bubble, allowed by the CCP's central planning, which has aimed more at heading off disaster tomorrow than encouraging sustainable growth over the long-term. The underlying causes of the expected hard landing are the same as those discussed in Gordon Chang's The Coming Collapse of China, which admittedly has been hard to take seriously for the last few years. Then again, imagine someone had told you in 2005 that the U.S. was about to suffer a historic housing crash and recession that would leave GM government-owned and several major investment banks a historical footnote.

"Mean reversion is a bitch," the article says, but this isn't cause for celebration, because (hundreds of) millions of people in China will suffer, and there will be effects outside China, to put it mildly. If the article-writer is correct - along with Gordon Chang, who wrote the Coming Collapse of China a decade ago - can we stop it now? Probably not. But the lesson here is the more open and the more transparent is the Chinese economy and China in general, then over the long run the better for China, and the better for everyone else. Of course this isn't what the CCP wants because they lose control, and their jobs.

Healthcare Reform Being Sunk - By Democrats

Looks like the President's fellow Democrats - relatively conservative or otherwise - are the main obstacle to railroading through healthcare reform. California Democrat Senator Diane Feinstein has made a point of openly expressing reservations about the costs to the public. When was the last time you heard a Democrat worrying about the cost of entitlements?

Meanwhile, Harry Reid has given the liberal blogosphere further cause for anxiety by announcing that the bill will have to wait until after recess. Why the anxiety? The longer Congress has to think about it, the worse and idea it will seem. Is it just me, or does the rush to get this monster to the President's desk remind you of healthcare's answer to the Patriot Act?

This has been a long week for Obama. His clumsy wading into Gatesgate will cost him the capital he needs to get a healthcare reform bill through. It was, bluntly, a mistake that makes him seem less "post-racial", more partisan, and is costing him the respect of a lot of the blue collar workers who won him the Northeast. Whether or not you agree with what he said, I invite you to look at the dip in approval ratings two weeks from now.

Oakland is Taxing Marijuana

I voted for this measure, and it passed. Widely. I'm interested in your take. It's a voluntary, consumption-based tax, and by having the city rely to some degree on weed tax revenues, it legitimizes a recreational compound that, like booze or cigarettes, people should be able to choose whether or not to enjoy.



Note that a shift toward a simpler consumption-based tax system is one that many fiscal conservatives (including Bruce Bartlett) are incrasingly advocating for. This could be a big win for Republicans, and Democrats wouldn't dare be seen resisting it.

And in other news separating the fiscal conservatives and libertarians from the social conservatives who lost the 2008 election, look who's come out against Ms. Palin's circus. The same guy I wrote about in my last post.

Who Voted Against House Resolution 131?

The title of the resolution is "Directing the Architect of the Capitol to engrave the Pledge of Allegiance to the Flag and the National Motto of 'In God We Trust' in the Capitol Visitor Center." Only one Republican voted against it - the one who apparently still recognizes the value of keeping government out of our private lives - Ron Paul.

Oppression in the Information Age

- Moussavi reporters in Iran chant "Death to China! Death to Russia!" Russia and China were among the first to congratulate Ahmadinejad for being "re-elected". Iran's people are smart; they're connected; and they'll remember this.

- Turkey calls what China has done in Xinjiang a genocide. Meanwhile, search for articles with positive reactions to China's crackdown and you will find yourself limited almost entirely to Xinhua. Despite China's much more effective blockade of Twitter and other communication technolgoy, information has flowed back and forth between Uighurs in China, the U.S. and elsewhere.

That sound that Ahmadinejad and the CCP are hearing is accountability, and the more technology advances, the harder it becomes to outrun.

Did you see Mike Kim on the Daily Show?

Here. Jon Stewart interviews Kim about his new book, Escaping North Korea. Just as I was filled with admiration that there are human beings out there with the heart (and cajones) to do this, I made the mistake of reading the associated comments. There were a couple predictable ones from North Korean online propaganda trolls (that's a full-time job for a lot of people, along with the CCP and Scientologists) along with a few clueless posts by people who probably think they're progressive.

Look: whatever Mike Kim's motivations, whether his NGO is faith-based or not, I fully support him and admire what he's doing. One suspects from these verbal knee-jerks that anything that appears to result from a) the free exercise of religion (especially Christian) or b) the rejection of collectivist tyranny is suspicious to this crowd. This is how people who call themselves tolerant and progressive end up looking the other way when confronted with constant, nightmarish human rights violations like those in North Korea, because it doesn't sit well with their "America and Christianity is the root of all evil" morally-superior-out-of-insecurity back-patting.

What makes my little rant different from others you may have read? Because I'm an ardent atheist, that's why, and my defense of Kim and his colleagues is based on a morality that any thinking human being has access to. I'm not impressed with any country that disallows free inquiry and whose official history claims their leader's birth was heralded by a special star. I'm really not impressed with people who live in free countries and are ready to jump to the defense of totalitarian states, and to attack people who are putting their lives on the line to make a difference and defending human life. Kim is supporting people's right to worship as they choose. So do I, along with (I hope) every other citizen of the world's democracies.

Check out the homepage for the book here, and Mike Kim's Facebook group here.

A Chinese Company Has Bought The Onion

Visit their recent news section to see. Priceless.

China: Here's How to Quell Tibetan and Uighur Unrest

Offer free elections, freedom of religion, and freedom of speech to everyone. Outlaw discrimination. It works, and it makes you stronger.

Globalization Cuts Both Ways

Globalization and open markets are good things. I fully expect that as Asia continues its rise, and therefore increases its competition with the U.S., many Americans will suddenly find globalization and capitalism not to their liking. Why? As Jim Manzi puts it,

...in practical terms, [globalization] has very little to do with McDonald’s in France, and almost everything to do with the economic rise of Asia, [and] U.S. income inequality is a demonstration that many – probably most – Americans don’t have the capabilities required to maintain anything like their current standard of living in competition with a global labor force.

Japanese ascendance in the auto and steel industry in the 1980s made many self-claimed conservatives cry, "Boo hoo, the Asians are coming, you have to pass protectionist tariffs to protect my job!" Globalization works both ways, and it will always work to take away older industries from developed countries like ours. If you fight that, you're a wannabe socialist, and you're pissing into the wind. See why education is important?

Xinjiang: Han Nationalism and CCP Hypocrisy

There's a current in American leftist-progressives that can be summarized as follows: while other countries sometimes do bad things, they're never as bad as the same types of deeds committed by the United States. For this reason, it seems painful for leftists to ever concede moral parity, let alone superiority, for American political institutions or historical episodes. Yes, the US is a country run by mortals, and has made mistakes, but this kind of top-down knee-jerk ideology doesn't help public discourse. My earlier post about the Xinjiang unrest brought some of these out of the wood-work.

I re-submit that what's happening in Urumqi now is something that could not happen in the United States today, and has not happened in the U.S. since prior to the 1950s. During the worst Watts riots, were there gangs of white thugs cruising the streets and police officers refusing to take reports from, or protect, black Angelenos? The point is that, at this stage, the behavior of the Chinese government shows that it is not a modern, secure nation. Any country its size is necessarily multiethnic, and this is not a fact that they've been able to digest. What's the chance of a free, peaceful election in China choosing an Uighur or Tibetan leader? Like our president or not, we just did the equivalent here. The CCP's continued grip on power is holding back a great civilization, and like all non-consent based dictatorships, their supposed ideology of socialism inevitably degenerates into nationalism. Search Das Kapital and the Communist Manifesto for a single instance of Marx saying that the Han are the Asian master race, and you will (not surprisingly) do so in vain.

During the Cold War, CCP-China played the card of kind uncle to the Third World, and in this decade they've been parlaying it into mineral development ventures, particularly in Africa. As their influence grows and their treatment of ethnic groups whose boundaries extend outside China continues to be shameful, they're going to find themselves increasingly on the moral defensive.

For my money, the AP's summary of the viewpoints of the two sides in the unrest is appropriately question-begging:

Uighurs, who number 9 million in Xinjiang, have complained about an influx of Han Chinese and government restrictions on their Muslim religion. They accuse the Han of discrimination and the Communist Party of trying to erase their language and culture.

Han Chinese, many of whom were encouraged to emigrate to Xinjiang by the government, believe the Uighurs should be grateful for the region's rapid economic development, which has brought schools, airports and oil wells to the sprawling, rugged region the size of Texas.

Was China grateful when European powers established spheres of influence and developed the Chinese economy and trade ties with the outside world? Does this mean we're invited back?

The official CCP answer will be, of course, that this is different, that Xinjiang is and always was part of China. I wonder when they'll start saying that about Burma and North Korea?

Now is the Time to be Vocal: MORE NUCLEAR

Conservatives: if you're reading this, I don't need to convince you that nuclear is the way to go, and has been for some time.

However, it's not us that has to be convinced. We need talking points for the social-issue leftists. Here are two that might impress them.

- The only way that can keep the lights on right now without emitting carbon and has current infrastructure is nuclear. It's a solution that's here now. Wind and solar don't come close.

- One of the founders of Greenpeace is pro-nuclear.


Much as you don't like these, if you're serious, this is the time to sound off. Like it or not, some form of cap-and-trade is going to pass in this Democratic Congress, and if the GOP lets it through without at least guaranteeing that nuclear is part of the package, then someone is really asleep at the wheel. Fortunately Lamar Alexander and John McCain are already weighing in. Get out there and support them.

Uighur Protests in and Around Urumqi, China

Here and here.

Why doesn't this happen in the U.S.? Why are there no Navajo insurrections or Aleutian revolts? Is it because we ruthlessly crush them? Or is it because the U.S. continues to improve and expand its freedoms based on the consent of the governed, freedom of speech, property ownership and transparency? As an added ironic observation, why is it that central authoritarian states, even when they're originally predicated on a supposedly universalist social theory like communism, inevitably degenerate to nationalism - where one group is more equal than the others (Uighurs and Tibetans especially)?

China has awakened as a great power, and ultimately it's up to all the people of China - including the Han - to demand the basic freedoms that the successful governments of the world deliver. A peaceful and prosperous twenty-first century depends on it.

China is Shutting Down Google Access Because...

Are you ready? Because Google spreads "pornographic, lewd, and vulgar" information. That's really the best the CCP could come up with.

Of course, one answer to that is "so what" - in a modern civilized country, it's the individual's job to sort that out, and not the government's job to censor it. But of course there's more to it. Could it be that a dictatorial government is just coordinating the release of the mandatory dissent-filtering software installed on all computers sold after this date? And is it only a coincidence that the Chinese Communist Party is nervous at the same time people elsewhere in the world are using the internet to demand their freedom?

If it's bad for the Chinese people, it's good for the Chinese government.

Coverage of Iran in China

Interesting. An editorial in the Global Times says "In reporting on the Islamic world, the Western media is putting freedom of speech too far ahead of responsibility." Other reports have decried Western interference.

No surprise; China's nervousness at a people's ability to demand accountability from government is understandable.

A Potential Win for the GOP: Tax Reform

Great quote from Jonathan Rauch's review of Patrick Allitt's The Conservatives:

"Bartlett argues that the smart conservative alternative is not to insist on no new taxes ever, but to champion a value-added tax (a VAT), which taxes consumption and allows very few loopholes. It is flat (or flat-ish), economically efficient, and difficult for lobbyists and politicians to game. Establishing a VAT would finance higher government spending, and that is not conservatives’ first choice. But we live in a second-choice world, and some spending growth is inevitable. Today’s tax system is so complex and perverse and inefficient (it punishes saving and investment, for heaven’s sake!) that a VAT could raise more revenues while strengthening the economy. Reagan–the real Reagan, not the caricature–would smile."

Tax reform is a potential big win for the GOP that the Democrats, given their core constituencies, wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole, but can't be seen as resisting.

Pro-Democracy Rallies on the West Coast

The one on Tuesday in San Francisco here, elsewhere here.

Want to piss off a bunch of Islamic fascists? Become another outlet for Mousavi's Twitter feeds right on your Facebook page! Apparently these medieval thugs think that in 2009 they can stop the free flow of information.

If you need more hints on who the good guys are, look how quick Russia and China have been to congratulate Ahmadinjad.

When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. -Thomas Jefferson

Noah's Ark Found in Hong Kong

In many posts I emphasize the importance of technology to American economic success, and consequently the importance of educating scientists and engineers - something which Asian countries in general, and China specifically, is beating us badly at.

That's why every patriotic American should rise up in outrage at know-nothings who try to damage your kids' brains by making them learn the Qu'ranic account of creation - in public schools - instead of science and math. (Did you click on that link? Did it connect to something different than what you expected? Does the difference matter to you? Why?)

Turns out there are two approaches to competing with our neighbors across the Pacific. Chinese real estate moguls are opening a Noah's Ark theme park in Hong Kong. These "Chinese" investors are clearly operating in the service of the U.S. government, and sabotaging China's success. Brilliant! This is the best news I've heard about China for a while! Instead of educating our kids, we can stultify Chinese kids! Maybe we can get a Creation Museum to open there too. Once they convince enough bright Chinese kids that the principles of chemistry and genetics are all nonsense, maybe we can actually keep our edge in biotech. Bravo, Noah's Ark investors - what a brilliant Trojan horse.

Conservatives Supporting Iranian Free Elections

I take a little break from this blog, and look what happens. Iran has an election, unsurprisingly it's crooked and Ahmadinejad steals it, and historically huge numbers of people throng the streets in Tehran. American mainstream media have fallen on their faces here; about the only thing they've succeeded at is protecting audiences from seeing the ugly truth of what dictatorial governments will do to squelch democracy.

Conservatives: Iran is a theocratic dictatorship by thugs and for thugs. We should be vocally supporting any expansion of the rights we take for granted - like free elections and speech - if only to undermine Ahmedinejad's nuclear momentum. What's bad for Iranian priest-dictators is good for everyone else, including (especially) the Iranian people.

I started this blog to try to draw conservative foreign policy attention more toward East Asia, which is usually where the real action is happening. The Middle East matters only for these few moments in history, becuase oil matters. Islamic terrorism is the efforts of desperate extremist Neanderthals to turn back the tide of freedom and economic growth. East Asia is still where the long-term momentum is; but Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. That makes this a critical moment in that country's history - and ours.

So what can we do? Get on a Twitter feed or join an online community like a Facebook group and express your support (Ahmedinejad knows that this is a problem for him). Go to a rally, like the one I'm going to the night of Tuesday 16 June in Union Square in San Francisco. Email your representative that it's important to you as a conservative that the U.S. shows its solidarity with the Iranian people, especially because the guy that just stole the election is trying to build a nuclear bomb.

We're watching people fight for their freedom. Let's not let them down.

The Price of Not Innovating

Full Businessweek article here. Excerpts:

The final piece of evidence [for an innovation shortfall] is the financial crisis itself. After the 2001 tech bust, trillions of dollars flowed into the U.S.—but most of it went into government bonds and housing rather than into innovative sectors of the economy. While subprime mortgages boomed, venture capital investments have more or less stagnated since 2001, with few tech startups going public...

...An innovation shortfall might also have weakened the country's underlying productivity growth, which in turn influenced real wages and the ability of consumers to spend without borrowing. Certainly economists on both the left and the right believe innovation is an essential ingredient for growth. A December 2006 paper by the Brookings Institution, co-authored by Peter R. Orszag, now head of the Office of Management & Budget, observed: 'Because the U.S. is at the frontier of modern technological and scientific advances, sustaining economic growth depends substantially on our ability to advance that frontier.'

Oakland, California to Issue ID Cards to Illegals

I'm posting a link to an entry in my local (Oakland, California) blog. The city of Oakland is proposing an ID card to half-legitimize illegals residing in the city. Being married to a legal immigrant, who jumped through a lot of hoops to be legal, I'm pretty down on any suggestion that the road should be smoothed for those who break the rules.