Thursday, November 20, 2008

Unsurprising Bad News for the GOP Brand

Only 34% of Americans in this Gallup poll had a favorable opinion of the GOP, down from 40% before the election. Yes, there's a problem; if you didn't realize this by now, go back to sleep. Meanwhile, as the solution, 59% of registered GOP members say the party should become more conservative. The problem is What does "more conservative" mean to that 59%? More, or less government intrusion into private life? More, or less spending? More reliance on facts and figures, or more concerns over frankly not-very-important social issues like teen abstinence

In a few days I'll be posting my little regression analysis of the 2008 election results, and then inferring what they mean demographically for the GOP of the future. But the schism is here, and the GOP has to make a choice between fiscal and social conservatism, since trying to play both sides obviously didn't work in 2008. If it's social conservatism they want (meaning more intrusion, more spending, more concerns about social issues), then look at the last election, and look at the public reaction - and seemingly half of the GOP's reaction - to Palin, and ask yourself if that's the way to win going forward in a younger, more diverse, less religious country in 2012 and beyond.

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